Yes, I’ve been a slacker lately when it comes to film blogging.

I blame society. More specifically, my obsession with the Democrat race. What sports is to some guys, politics is to me — though I do have the excuse that, unlike the outcome of a baseball or football game, the outcome of a presidential race actually matters. Also, you can’t make phone calls to help your favorite teams win, so there’s a bit more justification for saying “we won” if you’re person wins than there might be if your team does. (I’m sure, however, that if guys could help their teams win by making phone calls, America’s entire communications system would go down during play-off seasons.)

However, since it seems to be the thing to do, I’m forcing myself back on track today to take a look at the Oscars, which are kind of my personal Superbowl, even if it’s not like they, er, matter or anything, except that they do, sort of. I figure that most of you won’t be reading this until after the awards have been presented, so I’ll try to be as pithy as possible. Also, I promise a post-Oscar post as well. We’ll take this one category by category. (And I’m dispensing with the usual IMDb links. Too time consuming and you all know these movies, right?)

Visual Effects: “The Golden Compass,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End,” “Transformers.”

Unless there’s something obviously special or innovative, these sorts of awards usually go to whichever film people actually liked the most. Not fair, but that’s life in Oscar land.

Anyhow, Transformers is the only one of these films I saw — and I only made it halfway through. Still, lots of people dug this film in a guilty-pleasure sort of a way and it was a giant sized hit (one of the few nominated), and the effects were pretty much the main (only?) attraction. Even I found them sort of hypnotic in an inhuman kind of a way. I’d be surprised if it didn’t get the award.

And the Bobster for SFX goes to….Juno for Ellen Page’s belly. Most believable prosthetic pregna-belly yet. (Yes, I know that’s really considered make-up. I’d just hate to give anything to Transformers.)

Makeup: “La Vie en Rose,” “Norbit,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.”

This category usually goes to a film with obvious elaborate effects but this year seems to lack that, revolting fat suits notwithstanding. Seeing my rule about “technical” awards going to films people liked in the event of no obvious innovations — did anyone like any of these? Okay, I know some people like the Disney Pirates movies. (I was half-hearted on the first and walked out on the second.) So, I’m guessing that might win, and I’m sure there were some pretty crazy make-up effects. Pirates it is.

I did see “La Vie en Rose” and, while I didn’t much care for the movie, beautiful Marion Cotillard’s transformation into the pixie-ish and weirdly balding Edith Piaf was as impressive as her performance in the otherwise kind of dreary musical biopic. I could give this a Bobster. But I won’t.

And the Bobster goes to…Walk Hard for Jason Schwartzman’s front teeth as Ringo Starr. It’s just a size thing.

Editing: “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “Into the Wild,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood.”

I’ve often said that the only way to judge this category properly would be to see the rushes the editors were working with and compare those to the finished film. Usually, however, this award goes to whichever film is sweeping the night or winning best director. But sometimes it goes to the most obviously “edited” film. I strongly suspect The Bourne Ultimatum may be a shoe-in, since it famously had a gazillion cuts, and people liked it.

And the Bobster goes to….There Will Be Blood. My first semi-serious award, because the pacing and tension in the film was genuinely brilliant, though teetering on the edge of madness — which I guess was kind of the point. Though I have so far missed Into the Wild and The Diving Bell, I have a hard time imagining a better put-together film this year. I’m sure P.T. Anderson was involved, but his editors clearly didn’t fail him.

Original Song: “Falling Slowly” from “Once,” Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova; “Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted,” Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz; “Raise It Up” from “August Rush.”

Traditionally the fogiest of old-fogey categories, I’ll be rooting very much for “Falling Slowly” from the wondrous Once, which lost the traditional indie-break-out-hit film slot to the good, but far less wondrous, Juno. Still, the fogey factor must not be neglected and affection for Alan Menken is high (I’m not sure about Stephen Schwartz who, apropos of nothing, became bitter enemies with Bob Fosse when he rode creative herd over the young writer-composer of Pippin.) Nevertheless, I’m going to call this one for “Falling Slowly.”

And the Bobster goes to….“Happy Place” by H.P. Mendoza from Colma: The Musical. There was actually a completely doomed petition calling for an Oscar nomination for this song from the highly imperfect, yet equally amazing, zero-budget indie musical comedy-drama. I love, love, love this song (no MP3s available for it without buying the soundtrack album that I know of, though you can hear a snippet of it via the trailer at the film’s site and perhaps elsewhere). Aside from being just a great pop song on its own, it fits its filmic moment perfectly — right at a point where I was starting to get really annoyed with the film, I suddenly was loving it again. (Read my effusive, if slightly conflicted, thoughts on Colma here.)

Original Score: “Atonement,” Dario Marianelli; “The Kite Runner,” Alberto Iglesias; “Michael Clayton,” James Newton Howard; “Ratatouille,” Michael Giacchino; “3:10 to Yuma,” Marco Beltrami.

I’m going to say “Ratatouille” on this one, just based on popular affection for the film and, of course, rampant Francophilia on the part of America-hating leftist Holllywood (though the pro-terrorist leaning of Hollywood might favor David Marianelli’s work on the crypto-Islamofascist screed, The Kite Runner, you never know).

And the Bobster goes to…Sweeney Todd, okay, not an original score in any sense — but the brilliant adaptation of material from the original show to the film deserves some kind of prize. Certainly the instrumental music opening the film sets the tone perfectly and is an amazing, terrifying, piece of music in its own right.

Sound Mixing: “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “No Country for Old Men,” “Ratatouille,” “3:10 to Yuma,” “Transformers.”

Sound Editing: “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “No Country for Old Men,” “Ratatouille,” “There Will Be Blood,” “Transformers.”

Probably the two-silliest categories for a non-professional to discuss — and even someone like me who actually went to film school and knows slightly more than the average bear has a hard time teasing these two categories apart. This award could go one of two words — a harbinger of a sweep for either No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood or as a kind of consolation prize for films that people liked but that didn’t get many Oscar nominations, like Bourne and Ratatouille. Still, given the memorable nature of the sound design, I’m going to have to go with There Will Be Blood for sound editing, even though I very much doubt the film will sweep. For mixing, I’ll say Transformers because it’s all techie and stuff.

And the (undereducated) Bobster goes to….There Will Be Blood. Is it because of the score? Probably.

Cinematography: “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” “Atonement,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood.”

I have to admit I haven’t done as good a job as usual at keeping up with the Oscar films in some of the categories this year. Again, I blame society.

Cinematography is an award that can signal a sweep, or can go to a movie that people actually were struck by the imagery — so Roger Deakins work on Jesse James has a shot here it otherwise might not, since it was widely praised on that score. Atonement has some striking visuals, so it’s another possibility and the film could appeal to some older voters. Even if there’s a No Country sweep, the film’s stark dinginess and coldness could work against it, and it’s also shot by Roger Deakins. I’m guessing the Deakins vote will split, and the result will be a well-deserved Oscar for Robert Elswit on There Will Be Blood.

And the Bobster Goes to…There Will Be Blood.

Art Direction: “American Gangster,” “Atonement,” “The Golden Compass,” “Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street,” “There Will Be Blood.”

They might as well call this one, “the Tim Burton category.” Sweeney Todd all the way, baby.

And the Bobster goes to…Sweeney Todd. Actually, most Tim Burton films have deserved some kind of award in this category — it’s what the man does.

Animated Feature Film: “Persepolis”; “Ratatouille”; “Surf’s Up.”

They might as well call this one “the Pixar category” these days as well. So, Ratatouille seems an extremely safe bet. Still, given it’s currency, I wouldn’t completely rule out a “Persepolis” upset…or maybe I would. I missed Surf’s Up but I think we can rely on general penguin fatigue ruling this one out.

And the Bobster goes to….Withheld! pending my viewing of Persepolis. (I should probably see Surf’s Up to be totally fair — but since when are awards fair.)

Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, “Juno”; Nancy Oliver, “Lars and the Real Girl”; Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”; Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco, “Ratatouille”; Tamara Jenkins, “The Savages.”

I’m ashamed of not having seen “The Savages” or “Lars and the Real Girl” here, but I’m also tired of blaming society. I blame lackluster genetics, then.

This is traditionally the award given to the indie films, and with Diablo Cody getting all kinds of attention, she certainly seems to be the favorite here, though Tony Gilroy has an outside chance, with Tamara Jenkins being a darkhorse. Damon Runyan says, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.” So, Ms. Cody gets it.

I know some folks will caterwaul about this, but too cute or not, she did come up with a solid story with some real heart — the last act is particularly strong and, in my opinion, much better than the rather pat conclusion of “Michael Clayton.” (I can hear you screaming out there.) Still, you’ll be happy to know that Juno is not my choice.

And the Bobster goes to…Breach. Why this truly outstanding and reasonably Oscar friendly fact-based spy film/tragedy was released so early in the year, pretty much dooming its Oscar chances, I’ll never know. In any case, an efficient and beautifully crafted piece of writing from director Billy Ray, rewriting a script by Adam Mazer and William Rotko, both of whose only prior credits are as associate producers on, I’m not kidding, Super Troopers.

Extremely honorable mentions (and very close ones at that): The Darjeeling Limited (just what are people expecting from Wes Anderson and Noah Baumbach, anyway?) and, despite needing some editing after a decade in the making, Superbad by Seth Rogan and the other guy who looks nothing like Michael Sera. If I ran the Academy, penis jokes would not be a disqualifier.

Adapted Screenplay: Christopher Hampton, “Atonement”; Sarah Polley, “Away from Her”; Ronald Harwood, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”; Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood.”

This is an interesting category. It could wind up being a consolation award for either the Coen’s or P.T. Anderson, but I wouldn’t count out young and gifted Sarah Polley’s solid work adapting a short story by Alice Munro on the Egoyanesque low-key gem, Away from Her. Still, this is the Coen’s category to lose. No Country for Old Men it is.

And the Bobster goes to….No Country for Old Men. Sometimes you gotta go with the majority. Without changing very much, the Coen’s drastically improved Cormac McCarthy’s exciting but pretentious little thriller. His writing strains for profundity, they achieve it (or enough of it, anyway). Extremely honorable mention to There Will Be Blood (and I LOVE the ending, so there).

Foreign Film: “Beaufort,” Israel; “The Counterfeiters,” Austria; “Katyn,” Poland; “Mongol,” Kazakhstan; “12,” Russia.

I’m flying blind here — this is tricky category for its unfairness and politics, and also because most of the films haven’t been released here yet. Just based on that I’ve heard of them, I’d say it’s between the Israeli Beaufort and the latest film from the great Polish director Andrej Wajda, whose Ashes and Diamonds and Kanal blew my mind back in film school and who has already won a lifetime achievement Oscar back in 2000. Considering the esteem for Wajda, and the heft of the subject matter, the Stalinist mass slaughter of Polish troops, I’m going to guess Katyn. It also will continue the trend of giving Best Foreign Language Oscars to films which highlight Soviet block human rights violations. That should make the gang at Libertas happy enough to put on pause that endless loop of 24 torture sequences they’re always watching. But seriously, even though I haven’t seen it, I kind of hope it wins. Wajda is a great filmmaker and don’t tell Libertas, but good liberals hate Stalinism too.

And the Bobster goes to…This is a fairly half-hearted award as I really haven’t seen many new foreign language films this year, but, despite some misgivings in terms of pacing, I’ve got to give this one to the cinephile-ballyhoed Korean monster thriller-tragicomedy, The Host. It’s the kind of film I’d actually like to reappraise a bit later.

Director: Julian Schnabel, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”; Jason Reitman, “Juno”; Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood.”

Unless they just split the vote, this category seems tailor made for either the Coens or Paul Anderson. Schnabel is too much of an outlier; Gilroy’s solid, unflashy professionalism is not what usually wins awards, and if Jason Reitman somehow wins for his solid but not genius-level work, the cinephiles will go all Paul Haggis/Crash - Sam Mendes/American Beauty on the world’s ass, and no one wants that. I’m feeling a compromise of sorts of sorts. Because it’s such a stylistic departure and obvious tour de force, this one goes to L.A.’s own Paul Thomas Anderson.

And the Bobster goes to…Richard Wong for Colma: The Musical. By far the most impressive directorial achievement of the year at least in terms of beating the odds and in sheer fun — a zero budget musical that approaches musical numbers far more intelligently than almost any recent film musical and somehow avoids all the usual pitfalls. If Wong had made an action picture, they’d be calling him the new Tarentino.

I’ll go even further, even with an often marginal script, if Sweeney Todd and Once hadn’t been as great as they both were (and their directors certainly deserve Bobsters as well), this would have easily been the best musical of the last several years. Extremely honorable mentions: Tim Burton, John Carney of Once, and perhaps most of all, Paul Thomas Anderson.

Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There”; Ruby Dee, “American Gangster”; Saoirse Ronan, “Atonement”; Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone”; Tilda Swinton, “Michael Clayton.”

As always, the supporting actor categories are the most interesting and the hardest to call. Frankly, the only person here I’d eliminate from consideration with any confidence is young Saoirse Ronan. Though she did solid work in Atonement, her part is simply not flashy or well-written enough to get (or, frankly, deserve) an Oscar. Though American Gangster is easily the most overrated film I saw all year, Ruby Dee is absolutely the best thing in it and, with a living legend like her, there’s always the “career achievement” aspect to be dealt with. On the other hand, Cate Blanchett is one of the two stand-out Bob Dylans in Todd Haynes’ I’m Not There. (The other is pre-teen Marcus Carl Franklin who convincingly plays the Woody Guthrie-wannabe Dylan.) And there are solid cases to be made for both Amy Ryan making a deeply unfit mother human in the solid but dank Gone Baby Gone and Tilda Swinton, letting them see her sweat, in Michael Clayton. I think the years of great work in not always great films is going to pay off and Ruby Dee will win a well deserved, though sentimentally, inspired, award.

And the Bobster goes to…Laura Linney in Breach. Yes, you heard me. Laura Linney doing the all-business neurotic FBI spy was strangely funny and oddly sad as Ryan Phillipe’s hardass spymaster in a movie without too many laughs or obvious emotions…She doesn’t even have a cat! Honorable mention: Alison Janney in Juno.

Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”; Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men”; Hal Holbrook, “Into the Wild”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Charlie Wilson’s War”; Tom Wilkinson, “Michael Clayton.”

If it weren’t for Javiar Bardem, this would be a very tough call. I haven’t seen in two of the films, but by all accounts, and the ones I’ve seen, there isn’t a less than spectacular performance in the bunch. Certaily I can vouch for Wilkinson and especialy Philip Seymour Hoffman’s embodiment of ruthless-yet-lovable real life spy Gust Avrakotos (not surprisingly, the movie somewhat dishonestly plays down the ruthless and plays up the lovable) is yet another jewel of a comic supporting performance in his amazing career. I was disappointed by Charlie Wilson’s War for numerous reasons, some frankly political (I think it’s kind of a white wash), but I’d see it again tomorrow for Hoffman. Still, this award clearly belongs to Bardem. He just captures something ineffable here that’s impossible to describe and impossible not to look at — and Oscar loves a great psychopathic villain with a catch-phrase, friendo.

And the Bobster goes to…Javiar Bardem. Honorable mention to Marcus Carl Franklin’s Woody Guthrie-Dylan and Paul Dano’s vastly underrated performance in There Will Be Blood. Also J.K. Simmons for Juno.

Actress: Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”; Julie Christie, “Away From Her”; Marion Cotillard, “La Vie en Rose”; Laura Linney, “The Savages”; Ellen Page, “Juno.”

Although of the films I’ve seen either Ellen Page or Marion Cotillard would have been honorable choices, I think the combination of career achievement and the sheer understated brilliance of her role in Away from Her makes this all but a sure thing for Ms. Christie. Of course, Ellen Page has gotten plenty of raves for her career making performance, and there would be an interesting irony if Page won, because Julie Christie won her Oscar quite early in her career for 1965’s Darling. Still, her performance in Away from Her is beyond remarkable. I’ll be unhappy if she loses.

And the Bobster goes to...Julie Christie.

Actor: George Clooney, “Michael Clayton”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”; Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd, Demon Barber of Fleet Street”; Tommy Lee Jones, “In the Valley of Elah”; Viggo Mortensen, “Eastern Promises.”

That lovable quipster Clooney said it best for mainstream Hollywood opinion in his early concession of defeat to Daniel Day-Lewis’s perfect slice of country-baked movie ham: “For me, it’s like being Hillary Clinton … If it weren’t for Barack Obama, it would have been a very good year.” There is no shame in being a ham in the right role, and Daniel Plainview is clearly in the right role and there’s no denying he has the big Mo this time. (However, if Clooney is Hillary and Lewis is Obama, then I guess Viggo Mortensen or Johnny Depp is John Edwards…but whose Tommy Lee Jones? Mike Gravel?)

And the Bobster goes to…A stunning surprise tie! Viggo Mortensen for his massively charismatic turn in David Cronenberg’s surprisingly straightforward suspenser Eastern Promises (and, no, I’m not thinking of the shower scene…not that there’s anything wrong with naked to-the-death combat) and Chris Cooper for his many layered performance as pervy-but-repressed, mean-but-likable megaspy Robert Hanson in Breach.

And finally…

Best Picture — “Atonement,” “Juno,” “Michael Clayton,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood.”

This is tough one to separate the “should wins” from the “will wins.” The only movie which clearly seems to have neither the fan base nor the minimum quality (and I think there is, usually, a sort of baseline minimum) to actually win is “Atonement.” “Juno” of course is by far the most popular film on the list in terms of ticket sales and it has its bigger fans along with the vociferous backlash contingent pre-gnashing its teeth in fear of a win. “There Will Be Blood” and “No Country for Old Men” have had remarkably similar reactions — rapture with a small backlash causing a certain amount of the kind of cinephile consternation that few Oscar voters are ever aware of. Ultimately, though, “No Country for Old Men” is far more of an example of classic American filmmaking at its best and therefore the safer choice than the more openly baroque “There Will Be Blood.” There will be “No Country for Old Men,” I think — but “Juno” is distinct possibility though I hope not. Not because it’s a lesser choice, though it is. I’d just rather not deal with the over-the-top caterwauling castigates the film for the sin of being good, but not as great as some think. The fuss over Crash was bad enough.

And the Bobster goes to….Once. I don’t even know why I think this movie is perfect or even why it’s my favorite musical this year. The music is good — but not nearly as involving as the score to Sweeney Todd or the actually quite brilliant score for Colma: The Musical. It all comes down to the seemingly slight — but not really — story and the direction. Whatever John Carney did on this funny, low-key semi-romance, he did it right.